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Document Type

Original Article

Subject Areas

Covid-19 and African Trade

Keywords

COVID-19, Trade, Mauritius, Bayesian Structural Time Series

Abstract

This study investigates the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures on the trade system of Mauritius for the period January 2010 to June 2021. As the pandemic spread across the globe due to high interconnectedness across countries, authorities has also established stringent health containment measures in the form of restrictions on people and businesses to slow the propagation of the virus. Being a small island economy highly dependent on international trade, Mauritius also faced the brunt of the pandemic which disrupted its economic activities and trade flows with its main trading partners. COVID-19 incidence and lockdown measures have impacted both exports and imports in Mauritius. The analysis was conducted using monthly data and the Bayesian structural time-series framework for causal analysis, well known for its feature in exploring the impacts of any intervention variable on time-series data. Our findings reveal that overall; the trade values for each trading partner had significantly decreased. The results also suggest that the stricter the containment measures, the bigger the size of the negative impact of the pandemic on the trade values for both imports and exports. This study thus highlights the vulnerability of Mauritius as a small island economy to pandemics, emphasizing the need for tailored response strategies to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on trade.

Receive Date

24/02/2022

Accept Date

08/04/2023

Publication Date

2023

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