Approximating the first-order effects of AfCFTA tariff reductions on CO2 emissions

Authors

Jaime de Melo, University of Geneva and FERDIFollow
Jean-Marc Solleder, University of Geneva and FERDIFollow

Corresponding Author

Jean-Marc Solleder

Authors ORCID

Jean-Marc Solleder: 0000-0002-9764-8676, Jaime de Melo :0000-0002-1509-5239

Document Type

Original Article

Subject Areas

African Trade

Keywords

CO2; Africa; AFCFTA; emission intensity.

Abstract

This paper explores how AfCFTA tariff reductions affect CO₂ emissions. Using sector-level data, we find that more protected sectors are also more carbon intensive, so liberalization risks favoring “dirtier” activities. However, for EAC and ECOWAS, tariff cuts on liberalized goods reduce average carbon intensity. A full liberalization scenario suggests intra-African trade could rise by 32% while emissions grow by 24%, implying a modest decline in emission intensity. AfCFTA thus expands trade but requires complementary green policies.

How to Cite This Article

de Melo, Jaime and Solleder, Jean-Marc (2025) "Approximating the first-order effects of AfCFTA tariff reductions on CO2 emissions," Journal of African Trade: Vol. 12: Iss. 1, Article 7.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59624/2214-8523.1149

Receive Date

15/09/2025

Accept Date

27/11/2025

Publication Date

2025